Swiss glaciers 1850–2100
Future

Up to us

How much Swiss ice survives the century depends on how much more greenhouse gas the world emits. The range runs from about a fifth of today’s ice to almost none.

SSP1-2.6 · low emissions8.6 km³of ice in 2100, 20% of the 42.6 km³ left in 2026
SSP2-4.5 · intermediate emissions2.5 km³of ice in 2100, 6% of the 42.6 km³ left in 2026
SSP3-7.0 · high emissions0.4 km³of ice in 2100, 1% of the 42.6 km³ left in 2026
SSP5-8.5 · very high emissions0.1 km³of ice in 2100, 0% of the 42.6 km³ left in 2026

GLAMOS / VAW-ETH Zurich projections (M. Huss), published in the BEYOND ICE app.

Volume

The national picture

ObservedSSP1-2.6SSP2-4.5SSP3-7.0SSP5-8.5
02040608020002020204020602080210042.6 km³ · 202674.9 km³8.62.50.40.1
Ice volume in km³. Observed: GLAMOS (74.9 km³ in 2000, 42.6 km³ at the end of 2026). Projections: GLAMOS/ETH, starting from the 2016 inventory; they do not include the extreme years since 2022, which is why they sit above the observations.

Even with no further warming, Swiss glaciers would lose about a third of their remaining volume within 25 years: they are too large for today’s climate.

With emissions cut in line with the Paris Agreement (SSP1-2.6), about a fifth of today’s ice survives in these projections, mostly above about 3,100 m. With high emissions, practically all of it goes.

Sources: SCNAT factsheet 2025; GLAMOS 2025.

Area

1850 to 2100

InventoriesSSP1-2.6SSP2-4.5SSP3-7.0SSP5-8.5
05001,0001,5002,000185019001950200020502100projected1,7881,4941,311961211108426
Glacier area in km². Inventories 1850, 1931, 1973, 2016; then GLAMOS’ yearly estimates up to 2026 (square). Projections continue from there at the rate of loss modelled by OGGM for all 1,400 glaciers (median of CMIP6 models). Unadjusted, the models would still show about 847 km² for 2026: reality is running ahead of them.
Glaciers

The 40 largest glaciers in 2100

Glacierkm² 2016SSP1-2.6SSP2-4.5SSP3-7.0SSP5-8.5Gone · SSP5-8.5
Grosser Aletschgletscher78.530%11%1%0%2085
Gornergletscher41.243%22%8%2%–
Fieschergletscher E29.823%9%2%0%2088
Unteraargletscher22.722%10%4%0%2088
Oberaletschgletscher17.122%7%0%0%2080
Glacier de Corbassière14.924%8%2%0%2093
Vadret da Morteratsch14.936%17%5%0%2092
Zmuttgletscher14.826%11%4%0%2091
Rhonegletscher14.614%4%1%0%2080
Triftgletscher14.614%2%0%0%2071
Findelgletscher13.96%0%0%0%2067
Feegletscher zentral13.846%21%4%0%2091
Glacier de Zinal13.529%8%0%0%2078
Hüfifirn12.60%0%0%0%2058
Glacier d'Otemma zentral12.63%1%0%0%2064
Kanderfirn N12.01%0%0%0%2062
Gauligletscher10.820%4%0%0%2075
Turtmanngletscher zentral10.722%7%1%0%2081
Glacier du Mont Miné zentral10.116%2%0%0%2074
Unterer Theodulgletscher9.60%0%0%0%2046
Unterer Grindelwaldgletscher9.246%27%13%2%–
Allalingletscher9.125%7%0%0%2081
Glacier de Ferpècle9.126%3%0%0%2075
Oberer Grindelwaldgletscher8.342%16%2%0%2083
Langgletscher8.029%14%7%4%–
Obers Ischmeer E7.34%0%0%0%2061
Glacier de la Plaine Morte7.30%0%0%0%2065
Riedgletscher7.236%6%0%0%2080
Glacier du Brenay7.116%1%0%0%2072
Glacier de Saleinaz6.76%2%0%0%2068
Mittelaletschgletscher6.628%7%1%0%2082
Vadret da Roseg6.614%1%0%0%2070
Glacier du Mont Durand6.223%7%0%0%2078
Vadrec del Forno6.04%0%0%0%2059
Glacier du Trient5.83%0%0%0%2063
Vadret da Tschierva5.635%12%2%0%2085
Steigletscher5.637%9%0%0%2079
Glacier de Moming zentral5.441%11%1%0%2083
Rosenlouwigletscher5.433%9%1%0%2081
Vadret da Palü5.425%6%0%0%2075

Share of each glacier’s 2020 ice volume left in 2100; “gone” = less than 1% left. OGGM v1.6, median of 13–19 CMIP6 models.

Survival

How many make it

SSP1-2.684%of 1059 modelled glaciers gone by 2100; 61% already by 2050
SSP2-4.591%of 1059 modelled glaciers gone by 2100; 65% already by 2050
SSP3-7.097%of 1059 modelled glaciers gone by 2100; 66% already by 2050
SSP5-8.599%of 1059 modelled glaciers gone by 2100; 76% already by 2050
Patterns

What decides survival

Size

Share of glaciers gone by 2100 (SSP2-4.5)

under 0.1 km²100 %0.1–0.5 km²97 %0.5–1 km²88 %1–5 km²64 %5–20 km²36 %over 20 km²0 %

Height

Share of 2020 ice left in 2100, by the glacier’s highest point

below 3,000 m0 %3,000–3,250 m0 %3,250–3,500 m1 %3,500–3,750 m5 %3,750–4,000 m6 %above 4,000 m13 %

Aspect

Share of 2020 ice left in 2100, by the direction a glacier faces (glaciers under 5 km²)

NNEESESSWWNW5%

Small glaciers go first: 98% of glaciers under half a square kilometre are gone by 2100. What survives is high: glaciers reaching above 4,000 m keep 13% of their 2020 ice, those topping out below 3,250 m keep 0%. Direction matters too: north-facing glaciers get less sun and keep a little more (4% facing north against 0% facing south). Volume-weighted, OGGM median projections for SSP2-4.5.

Scenarios

What the scenarios mean

The four scenarios are the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways used by the IPCC. Each describes how the world develops and how much greenhouse gas it emits; the number after the dash is the extra energy trapped by the atmosphere in 2100, in watts per square metre.

SSP1-2.6 keeps global warming well below 2 °C (about 1.8 °C by 2081–2100), roughly the Paris Agreement. SSP2-4.5 is a middle road, close to current policies (2.7 °C). SSP3-7.0 is a fragmented world with rising emissions (3.6 °C). SSP5-8.5 is fossil-fuelled growth, the high end (4.4 °C). What the numbers mean →

Two model families appear on this site. National totals come from the Swiss reference projections by GLAMOS and ETH Zurich. Projections for individual glaciers come from the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), which runs every glacier in the world with the same method and 13 to 19 climate models per scenario. The two agree on the big picture; OGGM keeps somewhat more ice under low emissions.

Sources

Sources

  1. GLAMOS / VAW-ETH Zurich. BEYOND ICE – projections of all Swiss glaciers to 2100 (M. Huss; app by D. Clara). doi.glamos.ch/scenarios/
  2. Huss, Linsbauer & Naegeli (2025). Swiss Glaciers. State, projections and significance. Swiss Academies Factsheets 20(2). doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14866776
  3. GLAMOS (2025). Annual mass balance of Swiss glaciers in 2024/2025. doi.glamos.ch/pubs/annualrep/annualrep_2025.pdf
  4. Zekollari et al. (2024). Twenty-first century global glacier evolution under CMIP6 scenarios and the role of glacier-specific observations. The Cryosphere 18 (OGGM v1.6 projections). tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/5045/2024/